Poll: Dems have 7-point lead on generic House ballot

Democrats have a 7-point advantage over Republicans in the race for the House, according to a generic ballot poll released Tuesday.

The Quinnipiac University survey found that 49 percent of likely voters back the Democratic candidate in their local House race, while 42 percent support the Republican. 


The lead for the Democrats has shrunk from the same poll published on Sept. 12, which found that Democrats had the support of 52 percent of respondents and Republicans were backed by 38 percent.

The poll published Tuesday also found that 50 percent of voters want Democrats to win the Senate, while 43 percent want the GOP to retain control of the upper chamber. 

“The numbers suggest the big blue wave may have lost some of its momentum as House races tighten,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “… Five weeks out, voters prefer Democrats to take control of the Senate, putting the more elusive prize for Democrats within reach.” 

Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to win back the House. To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to gain two seats, but there they face a far more challenging map, including defending 10 sitting senators in states that voted for President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE.

FiveThirtyEight’s prediction models give the Democrats about a 75 percent chance to win the House and Republicans a roughly 73 percent chance to keep control of the Senate.

The Quinnipiac poll’s results were based on surveys of 1,111 likely voters across the United States from Sept. 27 to 30. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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